Stanford is world-renowned for its undergraduate and graduate education, but today that historic balance is at risk. Unless we adjust course, the next few decades will see graduate and postdoctoral students significantly outnumbering undergraduates.
Thirty years ago, Stanford's 12,780 students were about equally divided between undergraduate and graduate students. Over the decades, as undergraduate enrollment largely held steady, the number of graduate students grew at an annual rate of 1 percent. By 2011-12, the student body had increased by 2,850 but more than 85 percent of those were graduate students. Today, only 44 percent of our degree-seeking students are undergraduates.
If these 30-year trends continue, by 2040 less than 30 percent of all students would be undergraduates. While decreased research funding makes it unlikely that the number of graduate and postdoctoral students will continue to grow at the same pace in the future, in one reasonable scenario less than 40 percent of the total student population would be undergraduates. Many in the Stanford community think the historical balance is more appropriate, but if we do not begin restoring the balance soon, capacity limits on campus may preempt the possibility.
Stanford has become a top choice for undergraduates worldwide. In each of the past nine years, Stanford received a record-breaking number of applicants. In 2005, for the first time in our history, we received more than 20,000 applications. This year, 38,828 students applied for admission to the Class of 2017; only 2,210 could be admitted. A steady rise in yield among accepted students—76 percent for the entering class—indicates that many consider Stanford their first choice.
In 2007, recognizing the dramatic increase in qualified applicants and believing we had the responsibility and ability to educate more students, we began considering expanding the freshman class. Then the 2008 global economic crisis occurred. After five years of recovery, the trustees are once again raising the question.
There are several implications of an undergraduate expansion, and if we move forward, we will do so slowly. I anticipate adding only 100 to 200 students a year. Over 10 to 15 years there would be about 8,000 undergraduates, roughly the size of today's graduate student population. Proceeding slowly allows us to monitor the quality of the undergraduate experience and stop when the optimal balance has been reached, or when we see a qualitative reduction in the undergraduate experience.
There are a number of issues that could affect both the size and the speed of expansion. Stanford's undergraduate financial aid program is one of the strongest in the country, and we want to ensure the University remains accessible to all students. This requires continuing to build endowment for scholarships.
Housing is also a consideration. Stanford provides undergraduates with a four-year residential experience, and housing must be available when students arrive. The cost burdens, especially for new housing construction, mean some philanthropic assistance will be needed.
We also are mindful of the faculty-student experience for which Stanford is well known, and our commitment to the small class sizes must be steadfast. Also, undergraduate demand is heavy in some disciplines, such as computer science and several social sciences, and we will need to add faculty.
I believe expanding the freshman class—educating more exceptional young people—is very much in the spirit of Jane and Leland Stanford, whose goal in establishing the University was "to promote the public welfare." The financial, residential and educational challenges will require us—alumni, students, faculty and staff—to work together to ensure Stanford remains a "University of High Degree" in this century. In the next issue of Stanford magazine, I will address these issues in greater detail, and I welcome your thoughts and suggestions.
John Hennessy was the president of Stanford University.
