Just a year ago, it seemed the Chicken Littles of higher education had it right: only angst and misery awaited newly minted humanities PhDs planning academic careers. For most of the '90s, college enrollment was flat, and tenured professors -- no longer subject to mandatory retirement -- seemed to be staying put. Teaching slots that did open were often filled by part-timers for marginal wages. "We're in a permanent recession in academia," English professor Herbert Lindenberger told Stanford ("Pecking at Crumbs," July/August 1999).
Now there are glimmers that the worst may be over. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that in the decade from 1998 to 2008, the number of postsecondary teaching posts will rise by 21 to 35 percent. Why? The bureau predicts 10 percent enrollment growth over that 10-year period. At the same time, aging professors don't appear to be working into their dotage: according to a New York Times report, only 1 percent of the nation's faculty work past age 70. Moreover, the Labor Department expects the number of PhD candidates to remain flat, if not dwindle.
Indeed, the word "shortage" is cropping up in some academic planners' projections. In July, the San Francisco Chronicle reported that, in the next 10 years, California public colleges and universities would have to hire 34,000 more professors to handle a projected 700,000 additional students. UC officials cited a dramatic example of the expected wave of retirements: Berkeley's history department, where more than half the faculty will likely retire within the decade. Other state systems, notably Florida, Texas and Arizona, face similar pressures. The effects are already showing at Stanford, where Lindenberger reports "distinctly better" job results for English department grads this year. For PhDs, there are bluer skies ahead.
